Kirk's Market analyst & Tutorial

[kirk1701®]

As per my earlier thread asking if you all would be interested.

Thought I'd get some of the tutorial stuff out of the way, links to some great resources and online video's for those interested in getting into the market before I move on into posting my positions and trades.

Start off with a great Simulator, allows you to place trades and use monopoly money so it won't cost you anything just sign up and you will have access to a trading platform, place different types of trades and get the idea on how it works. You don't have to make a full time job out of playing the market, place your orders and when they reach your target the orders trigger.

http://www.investopedia.com/simulator/#axzz2HVWdarRh

Just like here on DirtyWarez, we have a forum for stocks and follow a lot of different companies you can get info on them here as well along with other peoples opinions and news on that security.

http://www.hotstockmarket.com

Just keep in mind, everyone has an opinion and these guys are no different than people here; its an open forum and everyoneââ'¬â"¢s allowed an opinion. For expert advice and analysis, stick with the next link below.

I also use The Market guys as a great resource and advisor to predict what the market is going to do. Sign up on the home page here for weekly 5 minute video's he puts out on what to expect the market is going to do next.
On the right side:

http://www.themarketguys.com/

Also on the home page, Open House Webinar
Sign up when it becomes available once a month and he will have webinars you can interact with, ask questions and have him analyze a stock for you. You also get idea's you otherwise wouldn't have known about on some investments you can get from others and get into.

Great detailed video's on market patterns and how to read and understand the charts, as I get going I will be referring to these patterns so you will see the trades I have placed before the stock reached this price and how I know its going to reach this price. The market is very predictable, why you think there are so many people doing it :mrgreen:

http://www.themarketguys.com/educational-videos/

Next Iââ'¬â"¢ll start with my trades and why and Iââ'¬â"¢ve used the price Iââ'¬â"¢ve set as buy/sell prices and will often refer back to the videoââ'¬â"¢s on The Market Guys above when I mention a type of chart pattern.

Due to market conditions right now Iââ'¬â"¢m not holding very much, not buying anything and only have sell orders in place to protect profits. Those orders I will post in individual posts next so I can quote that post when it triggers and sells.

 

[kirk1701®]

Re: Kirkââ'¬â"¢s Market analyst & Tutorial

Starting off with ticker AGNC
I've been holding this for nearly a year and this is a good stock to start off with to prove You won't win all of them and this is what's known as a )REIT) "'Real Estate Investment Trust" which in short are Equity securities which invest in and own properties (thus responsible for the equity or value of their real estate assets). Their revenues come principally from their properties' rents.

These stocks also pay a high dividend each quarter and since the housing crisis in 2009 REIT's took off and paying a high ash dividend which is nothing more then giving the investor a set price for each share they own every 3 months for merely owning the stock.

So, AGNC paid $1.25 a share, I have 200 shares
200 X 1.25 = $250 every 3 months.

However I paid $36.40 a share for this last September.
The shares are now sitting at $20.76 as of close Friday; July 5, 2013

Now here's where current events and news come into play with the market.
The Federal Reserve started hinting on cutting back on buying bonds to stimulate the US economy, in short this will make Mortgage rates go up. That happens, REIT's don't make as much profit so people are getting out, hence why the stock is dropping like a rock and to make matters worse, AGNC just cut its dividend as of last quarter so.

http://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/american-capital-agency-corp-agnc-annaly-capital-management-inc-nly-armour-residential-reit-inc-arr-should-you-be-worried-about-your-mreit%E2%80%99s-compensation-structure-179366/

Now for my plan, I have held onto AGNC way too long now and got myself into a $3,000 loss but the dividend has made up for some of that but not nearly 50% of it so itââ'¬â"¢s time to limit my losses in this position and move on. Several times I have already seen AGNC break support levels and drop till we are now back to whatââ'¬â"¢s called a Role Reversal (Agan see videoââ'¬â"¢s from The Market Guys) as shown in this screenshot:

From this you can see a high in 2008 of $20.28
That high is what we call resistance, an area to sell
Resistance once broke becomes support known as a role reversal.

So, as we can now see from the daily chart, we hit a low (Support) of $20.20 and bounced and started going up.

Does this mean were going to continue up next week? NO!!!!
Plenty of supports have been broke and now we can get into talking about 20 day moving averages and volume and other things but keeping it simple for right now.

I have an order in called a stop loss which in short just says if the stock drops to this price $19 a share Iââ'¬â"¢m out.

Why $19
Because $20.20 acted as support so Iââ'¬â"¢m giving myself a little wiggle room but if it goes below $19 that support is broken and the next support will be $15 at which time I might buy back if and when I see $15 holding. That $15 can be seen in the first screenshot shown as a low; early 2009.

 

[kirk1701®]

Re: Kirkââ'¬â"¢s Market analyst & Tutorial

Next, DDD one of my favorite and one I think will be a up and coming fast growth stocks much like Apple, Google and Amazon so expect good things from this.

I bought 200 shares of this back in February 2013 @ $64.98 before it split. A split means the price of the stock is going to be divided in half price wise and youââ'¬â"¢re going to be given so many shares so after all was said and done my adjusted price was $43.32 with 300 shares.

I since bought another 200 shares
Buy 200 DDD Executed @ $45.7

Now letââ'¬â"¢s look at a chart:

First I want to point out that red line above the $50 a share mark
Anyone care to take a stab at what this represents?

Due to market conditions and not expecting to get every penny here I have whatââ'¬â"¢s called a limit order in place.
Limit orders allow you to buy/sell a security at your price if and when the stock reaches that price (sell) or drops to a particular price (To buy). Till then that order just sits in your account; this is what I was referring to as you donââ'¬â"¢t have to make a full time job out of trading. Place your orders based off the charts and walk away.

Order Type: Sell
Shares: 500 (AON)
Description: 3-D SYS CORP DEL COM NEW (DDD)
Price Type: Limit
Your Price: $50.00
Term: Good For 60 Days

 

[kirk1701®]

Re: Kirkââ'¬â"¢s Market analyst & Tutorial

Next and last on my list is Silver ETF
An ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) much like the REIT above but is a stock that trades in a particular area such as stocks, commodities, or bonds, and trades close to its net asset value over the course of the trading day.

AGQ which tracks the price of Silver I bought:
Buy 100 AGQ Executed @ $17.7

And hereââ'¬â"¢s why:

As you can see were at a 5 year low
Also directly related to the feds buying up Bonds and its just a matter of time before Gold, Silver and other metals make a comeback so I might be buying more of this.

I also have an order in to sell the 100 shares I have but now that itââ'¬â"¢s dropped to $15.72 as of Close Friday we will probably go lower before we go higher giving me a chance to buy more first.

Time will tell if I buy more.
Why would I sell for $19.75 anyone?

 

[kirk1701®]

Re: Kirkââ'¬â"¢s Market analyst & Tutorial

Order Type: Sell
Shares: 500 (AON)
Description: 3-D SYS CORP DEL COM NEW (DDD)
Price Type: Limit
Your Price: $50.00
Term: Good For 60 Days

Update
Mon Jul 08 08:54:35 2013 Sell 500 DDD Cancelled

This kind of news is not a day you want to sell on:
Today, July 8, 2013
8:43 AM ET 3D Systems and Edison Nation Ink Exclusive 3D Printing CollaborationGlobeNewswire
8:32 AM ET 3D Systems announced that Enventys selected 3D Systems' complete portfolio of 3D printers for useBriefing.com
8:31 AM ET 3D Systems And Edison Nation Ink Exclusive 3D Printing CollaborationDow Jones

See what happens today, maybe sell 200 off at $52 but we'll see.

 

[kirk1701®]

Re: Kirkââ'¬â"¢s Market analyst & Tutorial

I since bought another 200 shares
Buy 200 DDD Executed @ $45.7

Order Type: Sell
Shares: 500 (AON)
Description: 3-D SYS CORP DEL COM NEW (DDD)
Price Type: Limit
Your Price: $50.00
Term: Good For 60 Days

+$400 today :thumbsup:

Adjusted my order due to last couple of days market

On a 5 day chart you can see we hit a high of $48.50 yesterday and today and pulled back.
There's a chance it could go higher but its time to sell some off, take some profits and hold some in case so that being said
Wed Jul 10 10:41:31 2013 Sell 200 DDD Executed @ $47.8

On a 3 month chart we still have some room at the top so, saving 300 shares to sell here but took some profits and if we pull back I'll buy back the 200 but main point here is profits.

New order for remaining 300 shares:

Order Type: Sell
Shares: 300

Description: 3-D SYS CORP DEL COM NEW (DDD)

Price Type: Limit
Your Price: $53.00
Term: Good For 60 Days

 

[kirk1701®]

Re: Kirkââ'¬â"¢s Market analyst & Tutorial

Just a short video for some of you guys following this, will help you learn about patterns.

This went out yesterday, predicting what the market is expected to do; he's pretty good, but not 100% accurate also.
Use your instincts as well.

http://www.screencast.com/t/Ayz9FiCsSg

 

[kirk1701®]

Re: Kirkââ'¬â"¢s Market analyst & Tutorial

Lets make some money guys

TSLA @ $115

Order Type: Buy
Shares: 100

Description:
TESLA MTRS INC COM (TSLA)
Price Type: Limit

Your Price: $115.00
Term: Good For 60 Days

Estimated Commission: $9.99

Estimated Total Cost: $11,509.99

Currently at $117.59 and has dropped $9.67 a share since market opened.
Precious high $114.90 and broke out above support then came back to the $115 and bounced again, just about back to the role reversal now once again and yesterdays high of $133 :mrgreen:

Here we go

Update:
Tue Jul 16 12:01:08 2013 Buy 100 TSLA Executed @ $115

OH ME!!!
Currently $108 and now is when risk management comes into play. Along with controlling your emotions. :|
Just ride it out

 

[kirk1701®]

Re: Kirkââ'¬â"¢s Market analyst & Tutorial

DAM!! That was close :roll:

All the way down to $104.50 so that put me in the red $1,000 and this is where your emotions can't get in the way.
Perfect example of what I talked about in the first post you have to control your emotions and be disciplined enough to see you've lost $1,000 and take a step back, analyze the chart, find the next support level and come up with a plan.

I placed a stop loss order @ $95
We have another support level at $97 as you can see from the next line, if it went to $95 that support is broke and could very well be looking at $75 to $80 so time to cut your losses.

I was up at 5 AM waiting for pre-Market looking to see if it was going down further. Lucky enough the buyers started coming in and brought the stock up and has recovered nicely.

I'm sitting sweet now, but don't count your chickens before they hatch

So, with that being said I'm not getting greedy, see the next line up.

Order Type:
Sell Shares: 100

Description: TESLA MTRS INC COM (TSLA)

Price Type: Limit

Your Price: $129.50
Term: Good For 60 Days

Now I'm keeping a close eye on this and might, just might protect my investment with another way of making money on the way down, call it insurance.
It's called Options Trading and basically it's placing a bet much like gambling here because your rolling the dice that the stock could go up/down in a certain amount of time.

Check back tomorrow, I might buy puts which is making money if the stock goes down.

 

[kirk1701®]

Re: Kirkââ'¬â"¢s Market analyst & Tutorial

Still going up guys in pre Market
Pre-market: 123.00 +2.75 (2.29%)

Ok I mentioned yesterday making money on the way down and protecting your investment with options trading. I've tried my hand in options in the past, don't know everything yet but I'm dibbling in it here and there and learning.

Options is Speculative trading which basically means your placing a bet the stock will go one way or the other in a set period of time and if it don't, and the option expires you lose the whole investment. If it does go your way and you sell the option back we'll its a good way to make a ton of cash in a little period of for just a small amount invested.

First 1 option equals 100 shares

Two, you have calls and puts
Buy Calls if you expect the stock to go up
Buy Puts if you expect the stock to go down.

Three, Strike Price
The price you expect the stock to go Up/Down to and that depends on you, you set your strike price which then gives you the option to buy that stock outright at that price when the stock goes up/down. But we don't want to buy the shares, we just want to sell the option back and make money. :mrgreen:

I'm looking to protect an investment against a downfall so I want PUTS and I'm playing a waiting game to see if it goes higher this morning, then buy puts. The higher the stock goes, the less expensive the puts will be.

And Four, lastly you have your Expiration date Options expire every Friday so you can go out further and buy your option for a month out, two months out, a year out, all depends on you.

Here's a screenshot of a options chain showing the above and definitions and I'm looking at one month out, Aug 17 expiration @ a $110 strike price which was last priced at $3.80 per put. That will cost me $380 for each put so if I bought 2 puts I'm looking $760 to protect my investment incase the stock starts to drop. Again, the higher the stock goes, the less the price of the put becomes.

 

[kirk1701®]

Re: Kirkââ'¬â"¢s Market analyst & Tutorial

Update:
Tue Jul 16 12:01:08 2013 Buy 100 TSLA Executed @ $115

OH ME!!!
Currently $108 and now is when risk management comes into play. Along with controlling your emotions. :|
Just ride it out

I'm out guys
With all the media over this ones head just not worth the risk, will explain later
Hey, +$600 for a day not bad.
Thu Jul 18 09:11:19 2013 Sell 100 TSLA Executed @ $121.1

 

[kirk1701®]

Re: Kirkââ'¬â"¢s Market analyst & Tutorial

Next trade candidate up for grabs :mrgreen:

Everyone knows what a Blackberry is right?

Order Type: Buy
Shares: 100
Description: BLACKBERRY LTD COM (BBRY)

Price Type: Limit
Your Price: $9.00
Term: Good For 60 Days

I've been keeping an eye on this one for some time since it was $16 a share and

Today, July 19, 2013
9:19 AM ET CORRECT: BlackBerry Raised to Mkt Perform From Underperform by BMO >BBRYDow Jones
9:15 AM ET BlackBerry Raised to Mkt Perform From Underperform by BMO >BBRY
Dow Jones

Means the stock was upgrades to BUY

And!! Look at the chart, I was looking at $9 as a support for a long time.

I'm in
Fri Jul 19 15:25:52 2013 Buy 100 BBRY Executed @ $9

Lets look at the charts:
On a 9 month chart we can see the role reversal, a previous high once broke turns to support.

How do you know where to sell now?
See the price void here between the two days where it dropped? That's a gap, gaps fill 80% of the time so this baby's going to $15

Now, what I did here was only buy 100 shares, if this drops further I will buy another 100 to average down :mrgreen: